Why Do Combines Even Matter?

Every year major sports put on a combine to run their draft hopefuls through some fitness testing to see where they stand, and every year the same battery of tests helps determine whether a draft hopeful goes as the number 1 pick overall or the number 4 pick.

The funny thing is, many of the combine results are somewhat meaningless to the abilities of the individual once they’re in a competitive setting. I mean, testing a hockey players chin up ability has very little carry over to any aspect of their competitive sport, especially since they will rarely have to do a vertical pull in a horizontal game.

Last year Sam Bennett made headlines as a rookie when at his combine he couldn’t do a single chin up. Everyone questioned his strength, saying it was pathetic and he wasn’t in any shape to play hockey, but he had surgery on his shoulder in October only a few months after the combine, which means it was possible that the shoulders was giving him problems in the combine as well and limiting his performance. I don’t think he minds too much at the moment, as during the 2015 playoffs he was averaging 14 minutes of ice time and managed to get 4 points in 11 games, as a rookie who was a scratch for most of the season. The year before he garnered 91 points in 57 games in the Ontario Junior Hockey League, so I think he’ll do alright.

In the 2000 NFL combine, the world got its first glimpse of an awkward scrawny Tom Brady, the saviour of Boston and the slayer of Giselle and average men’s hopes around the world of ever being as cool as he is. To say he was underwhelming would be an overstatement.

His 40 yard dash time was 5.28 seconds, and stands as the record for the slowest 40 among active quarterbacks, a full 0.2 seconds slower than the second entry Phillip Rivers. I’m sure if we strapped the feedbag around Terry Bradshaws mug he’d be able to hoof it along at about the same speed today. Peyton Manning was faster than Tom Brady. PEYTON MANNING!!! Let that sink in for a little while. For vertical jump, Tom was tied with Matt Ryan for the lowest, and for every speed and agility drill he was at least consistent.

The following year, Adam Archuleta made scouts drool when he stood out in the combine in a big way. The former Arizona state standout posted huge combine numbers, running a 4.42 40 yard dash, hitting a 39 inch vertical jump (not a box jump, an ACTUAL vertical jump), and benching 225 lbs for 31 reps. He posted good enough numbers in his first 3 years to warrant a big contract, and then went down as one of the worst free agent deals ever in NFL history, and retired after 6 years of actual playing with sharply declining numbers and one more season on the bench.

The combine is something that’s relatively new in hockey, only really existing for the past 15 years. While a windgate test sounds cool and is completely torturous (30 or 90 seconds max effort looking at peak power and drop off to measure fatigue and to see how quickly you can fill up a bucket afterwards), it can give a good idea of the cardiovascular fitness “top end” for the players, but won’t tell you much more than that.

In any sport, many of the combine activities look at individual aspects of fitness, like jumping, running, strength with a weight in a push or pull, and overall cardio fitness. The teams who are interested in a player will look at these numbers, then have the draft hopefuls do more of a specialized on-field workout with their coaches and trainers and see how they do. From here they use the data to form more of an opinion as to how the player will do, and as any predictive test in sports it’s very subject to human error and missed opportunities.

Some massively important aspects that don’t get looked at in combines are things like decision-making abilities on the field, team aptitudes (how well you play with others), or more sport specific skills. I’m sure the 40 yard dash would be a little more interesting if someone was hand-checking them for the first 5 yards, or if the bench press test in hockey was done standing and on skates.

Jeff Mathews is a prime example. Last year he scored the highest measured test in the Wonderlic test, a measure of cognitive abilities typically associated with office workers and not professional athletes. His on-field scores were pretty low, so as a result he went undrafted and will play in the CFL this year with hopes of good on field production to warrant another look from an NFL team.

Now let’s look at good old Tim Tebow. He entered the NFL with more hype than any other player, working with a style of play that served him incredibly well in the NCAA but wound up falling flat after he got into situations where his kicker wasn’t splitting uprights from 60 yards away to win games for him. His Wonderlic was last among quarterbacks for 2010, however he had a very respectable 4.71 40 yard, a 39 inch vertical, and the second highest broad jump measure among QBs that year. He also had the best times for cone drills and shuttle runs lending to his pocket play ability. Yet after one season, his stock fell. Traded to be a backup among the Jets and later cut by the Patriots, he refused to play in the CFL is missed a full season of play, hoping to get back in the game this year with the Philadelphia Eagles..

So now the question becomes why do they even have these combine tests if they aren’t very good at determining impact of the player in the first, 5th or 10th year of play, and if the tests themselves aren’t very determinant of playing ability itself? Well, all data is useful data when trying to make a multimillion dollar decision as to whether to give a player a spot on the main roster or put him in developmental. It’s also something that can be used to generate interest in a time of year where the game may not be generating as much interest itself. This year the NFL combine was aired live on the NFL network February 20-23, garnering near around the clock coverage for a sport where the biggest game of the year was over and done with 3 weeks earlier.

A study by Robbins et al (2010) looked at Combine performance outcomes and draft order and found no connection between the two. A study by Kuzmits & Adams (2008) showed no correlation between combine test results, draft order, or performance on the field in the NFL. However, a study by Sierier et al (2008) found that when comparing players of either skill, big skill, or linemen positions, the drafted players tended to score significantly higher across the board on testing than undrafted players.

In many cases, if you’re a very good player the combines will offer no challenge to you making the big leagues, but could affect your overall draft pick position, which might affect your signing bonus, but in today’s climate of salary caps it’s unlikely to kill your dreams too badly. However, a player on the bubble could conceivably show up and have excellent numbers at the combine to deserve a second look, and might go from being otherwise undrafted to being picked up in the late rounds.

We tend to focus on the higher achievers, but the true benefit for the combine seems to be for the guys just making the cut. In some instances, these could be the guys who go on to be standouts in the pros, or the guys who gain a position on a team they would otherwise never have and get the chance to live out their dream, even if they’re on the fourth line in some god awful team like Edmonton or something like that.